International investment bank Saxo Bank, which has its headquarters in Denmark, released its already traditional outrageous predictions for the coming year. This time the unifying theme is the year of a Perfect Storm. Saxo banks views the scenarios given below as unlikely events that nonetheless have a higher probability than what the market currently thinks.
Apple stock down by 50%
All European exchanges go for an unscheduled bank holiday as ordered by EU politicians after stock markets crash over 25%
A surprise late candidate takes the White House
Recession in Australia
50 European banks nationalized
NOK and SEK become safe havens replacing CHF
EURCHF goes to 1.5 as Swiss National Bank beats the market
USDCNY trends reverses, rises 10 percent to 7.00 as Chinese government comes to aid the exporters in trouble on economic weakness
Baltic dry index doubles as demand surprises
Wheat prices double as bad weather returns
In the end of 2010, Saxo Bank’s Black Swan stress test scenariots were a Q3 from Bernanke to be blocked by the congress, Apple buying Facebook, US Dollar index topping 100, 30-year treasury yields below 3%, Aussie Sterling down by 25%, crude oil to first top 100 and then correct violently, natural gas surging 50% and gold topping 1800, all-time high for S&P 500 and Russia RTS at 2500. Last year you would have done well hedging your bets on these.
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