Statoil foresees oil demand growth until 2030

Statoil’s (OSE: STL, NYSE:STO) Energy Perspectives 2012 annual outlook foresees over 40% increase in global energy demand by 2040 as its main scenario. This is based on a 2.8% annual growth rate with emerging economies leading the way. Oil demand is likely to be dampened by environmental policies, relatively high prices and change towards more efficient and energy conserving ways of transportation. Statoil expects it to peak in 2030 with private transportation demand from emerging economies contributing in the growth.

Statoil sees natural gas as a cost effective way to clean the energy mix with further LNG integration. Annual global gas demand is expected to grow 60% in absolute terms by 2040 and to increase its share in the global energy mix modestly. In relative terms, renewables should be the biggest winner, raising their share of the mix to a fifth from current 13.5%.

There may be some supply side upside surprises in the oil production, for example from North American tight oil. Current global oil reserves of 1523 billion barrels with nearly three quarters of that in OPEC hands, suggesting it will continue to play a major role, even though the changes in United States from both tight oil and shale gas development will present a challenge for the organization. Marginal production costs of new projects outside OPEC have risen considerably and Statoil sees full cycle marginal costs at 75-90 USD per barrel. The report notes that there is considerable uncertainty involved within the economic development and lists two alternative scenarios. The full text is available here and presentation slides here.